Flood Watch - Dec. 28, 2022

For Wednesday December 28, 2022, this notice is intended to inform the public and local municipalities of the condition of watercourses within the NPCA’s jurisdiction as it relates to the Niagara Peninsula, the southeastern portion of the City of Hamilton and the eastern portion of Haldimand County.

The recent blizzard has resulted in an average accumulation of 5-10cm of snow across the central, north, and west portions of the watershed and approximately 15-30cm of snow along the southern watershed from Haldimand County to Fort Erie. The current forecast is calling for temperatures to remain above the freezing mark for at least the next six days which will result in significant snow melt. Rain is predicted to begin on Friday, (December 30) and continue into Saturday (December 31) with rainfall accumulations of 15 to 25mm expected. This rainfall combined with snow melting over saturated or frozen ground can cause significant runoff to be directed into local ditches, watercourses, and storm sewer systems.

At the present time, water levels in our major watercourses in the central, north, and west portions of the watershed (Welland River, 20 Mile Creek, Oswego Creek) remain at or below average levels. While the water levels in some of the watercourses in these areas are slightly elevated (Four Mile Creek in Niagara-on-the-Lake, Walkers Creek in St. Catharines, and 12 Mile Creek in the Power Glen at DeCew Road) the forecast snow melt and rainfall is not anticipated to result in riverine flooding at this time. However, localized flooding in low lying areas or because of ice jams is always possible.

With respect to the southern portion of the watershed, the NPCA notes that stream gauges indicate that the water levels in Big Forks Creek (Wainfleet) and Black Creek (Stevensville) are elevated but presently below levels that would result in flooding. Field inspections have also confirmed elevated water levels in the Casey Drain (Side Road 18 in Wainfleet), the Beaver Dams Drain (Weaver Road in Port Colborne), and Six Mile Creek (Thunder Bay Road in Fort Erie). During our inspection, the NPCA had encountered municipal crews working diligently to open the channels and watercourses that drain into Lake Erie which had been blocked by sand and debris from the recent storm surge.

For Haldimand County to Fort Erie, the forecast snow melt and rainfall has the potential to result in riverine flooding. The extent of flooding will depend upon the amount of rainfall that is received. During this time, localized flooding is anticipated due to many roadside ditches being filled with debris, ice and snow.

Residents are urged to stay clear of creeks and rivers at this time due to slippery slopes, unstable ice and elevated water levels as they can be hazardous. The near shore pack-ice on Lake Erie is particularly unstable and dangerous. Drifting snow may hide deep pressure cracks and crevasses.