For Thursday, October 31st, 2019, this notice is intended to update the public and local municipalities of the condition of Watersheds and the Lake Erie Shoreline as it relates to the Niagara Peninsula and the eastern portions of Haldimand and Hamilton.
Currently the Niagara Peninsula is under a Wind Warning and Special Weather Statement as issued by Environment Canada. This system is forecasted to bring 30 to 50mm rain and strong South Westerly to Westerly winds. Sustained winds over Lake Erie of 50 to 60km/hr with gust approaching 100km/hr can be expected late tonight and into tomorrow morning. Winds will ease through the day Friday.
The MNRF is currently forecasting water levels to increase above current levels on Lake Erie at Port Colborne by approximately 1.5m (5ft). Significant wave heights of 1.8m (6ft) are also forecasted during this event. Water levels will start to build this evening and will peak around 2:00am Friday November 1st. If these water levels are reached flooding of low-lying areas is likely and with significant wave heights forecasted, increased shoreline erosion is also anticipated. This event is trending to be similar to the event that occurred on Sunday October 27th.
Stakeholders with interests along Lake Erie should pay close attention to water levels and waves in their area. Residents are urged to use caution or stay away from the shoreline of Lake Erie during this event.
Also with this event, 30 to 50mm of rain is forecasted. Currently water levels in local watersheds are elevated but are below critical thresholds. If the upper range of 50mm of rain materializes water levels will increase in local creeks. Flooding of low-lying, flood prone areas can be expected if the upper range of 50mm of rain occurs.
Information on the Flood Status in the watershed and water levels within local watercourses can be found on the NPCA’s website at:
This notice is in effect until noon, Saturday November 2nd, 2019 and will be updated as required.